Weather Forecasting – Completing a forecast

    Published: 06-16-2009
    Views: 10,157
    Chris Strong with the National Weather Service discusses how you can complete a weather forecast.

    Chris Strong: Hi, I am Chris Strong with the National Weather Service and we're talking about how you can forecast the weather. The next thing we'll discuss is how we can complete the forecast. Now in order to make your forecast of what's going to be happening we're going to have observations. So we're going to know exactly what's going on right where we are. If we track it over time we can see how things are changing, what the wind direction is coming from, how that might be affecting our weather, what the temperature changes have been. If we take a look at the big picture I can see not what's just going on at my side, but I can see what's going on all around me, in the state around me, in the county around me, also even nationally or even globally what's going on. So I can see what storm systems are likely to be affecting me over the next several days. Taking a look at our short-term forecast, we can take the information from our observations; from the observations all around us. Also using satellite and radar information to show us how the clouds are moving, how the precipitation is moving across the country, whether or not it's falling apart or organizing, how strong that is; we can learn a lot just from those pieces of information which are readily available online. From the observations of the radar and satellite we can get a good estimation of how storm systems are moving and how they're likely to affect us over the next several hours just by doing simple extrapolation as to how these storms are moving, how fast they're moving, and when they're likely to affect us or hit us. For looking more in the terms of the long-range we can take a look at not just those pieces of information, but now we can start to look at computer simulations of the atmosphere which are also readily available online, just doing internet search for computer modeling atmosphere. Once we get these computer simulations as to where the whirlpools of air are in the atmosphere, where the high pressure, fair weather centered atmosphere is, where the low pressure storms centered across the atmosphere are, and how those are likely to evolve, and change, and form, and anticipate over time, we can get a good idea of not just what's happening in our immediate future but what storms are likely to, likely to affect us three, four, or even seven days from now. So we take all that information together. Where we are right now, what the conditions are, the short-term forecasting, what's going on regionally around us, and the long-term forecasting; you should be able to create your own forecast for your family and friends, out through the next several days. Thank you for watching.